Donate Today,
Win Tomorrow.
Statistical analysis of the timing between political donations and government contract awards.189,937 temporal correlations across 25 entities reveal the rhythm of Australian political procurement.
189,937
Temporal Matches
$180.3B
Contract Value
23,530
Within 90 Days
171
Entities Fast-Track
Correlation, not causation. This analysis identifies temporal patterns between AEC donation records and AusTender contract data. Many of these entities are large companies that both donate widely and win contracts routinely. The data reveals systemic patterns worth investigating, not individual wrongdoing.
The Speed of Return
How quickly after a political donation does the donor win a government contract?
0–90 days
91–180 days
181–365 days
1–2 years
0–90 days
91–180 days
181–365 days
1–2 years
0–90 days
23,530
matches
$17.9B
83 entities
91–180 days
22,540
matches
$22.2B
88 entities
181–365 days
47,896
matches
$40.3B
106 entities
1–2 years
95,844
matches
$99.9B
113 entities
The Fastest Returns
Entities ranked by total contract value won within 2 years of making political donations. ROI = contract value received per dollar donated.
| Entity | Donated | Contracts Won | ROI | Avg Days | <90 Days | Parties |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $1.3M | $85.4B | 64,361.1x | 368 | 17,517 | 44 parties |
| ASX Limited | $175K | $18.6B | 106,285.7x | 360 | 560 | 15 parties |
| Thales Australia Limited | $57K | $14.1B | 247,089.3x | 356 | 1,783 | ALP, LIB, LIB |
| Raytheon Australia Pty Ltd | $39K | $9.8B | 253,017.6x | 511 | 3 | 8 parties |
| Baulderstone Pty Ltd | $44K | $8.8B | 199,606.9x | 340 | 4 | 6 parties |
| Sanofi-Aventis Australia Pty Ltd | $245K | $5.8B | 23,774.2x | 349 | 76 | 9 parties |
| Novartis Pharmaceuticals Australia Pty Limited | $302K | $5.6B | 18,571.9x | 348 | 88 | 16 parties |
| Roche Products Pty Ltd | $204K | $4.8B | 23,404.4x | 409 | 1 | 4 parties |
| Westpac Banking Corporation | $799K | $3.8B | 4,767.6x | 373 | 327 | 32 parties |
| National Australia Bank Limited | $846K | $3.8B | 4,436.6x | 345 | 104 | 18 parties |
| John Holland Pty Ltd | $146K | $3.1B | 21,033.2x | 439 | 5 | 17 parties |
| Telstra Corporation | $269K | $2.6B | 9,504.5x | 444 | 177 | 4 parties |
| Clayton Utz | $134K | $2.2B | 16,446x | 449 | 259 | 22 parties |
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia | $357K | $2.1B | 5,923x | 343 | 226 | 16 parties |
| Built Pty Ltd | $83K | $1.6B | 18,803.4x | 221 | 4 | ALP, Liberal NAT, LIB |
| Aspen Medical Pty Ltd | $43K | $1.5B | 35,147.4x | 320 | 92 | 7 parties |
| Grocon Pty Ltd | $110K | $1.3B | 12,108x | 487 | 2 | 9 parties |
| AOT Group Limited | $61K | $883.3M | 14,499.3x | 518 | 12 | LIB, LIB |
| Singtel Optus Pty Ltd | $148K | $456.8M | 3,076x | 448 | 18 | 26 parties |
| Memocorp Australia Pty Ltd | $126K | $424.3M | 3,366x | 582 | — | 10 parties |
Fastest Wins
Individual contracts over $1M awarded soonest after a political donation by the same entity.
| Entity | Donated | Contract | Buyer | Days | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanofi-Aventis Australia Pty Ltd | $2K | $2.2M | Department of Health and Aged Care | 0 | 1,379x |
| Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $3K | $1.6M | Department of Defence | 0 | 539.1x |
| Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $1K | $2.9M | Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet | 0 | 2,358.3x |
| Sanofi-Aventis Australia Pty Ltd | $2K | $2.3M | Department of Health and Aged Care | 0 | 1,380.4x |
| Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $1K | $5.4M | Department of Defence | 0 | 4,146.2x |
| Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $1K | $1.7M | Department of Defence | 0 | 1,200.6x |
| Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $2K | $4.7M | IP Australia | 0 | 3,035.6x |
| ASX Limited | $10K | $3.0M | Department of Defence | 0 | 300x |
| Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $1K | $2.6M | Department of Defence | 0 | 1,951.1x |
| Thales Australia Limited | $55 | $2.3M | Department of Defence | 0 | 41,506.9x |
| Sanofi-Aventis Australia Pty Ltd | $2K | $5.9M | Department of Health and Aged Care | 0 | 3,619.6x |
| Novartis Pharmaceuticals Australia Pty Limited | $550 | $43.4M | Department of Health and Aged Care | 0 | 78,843.3x |
| Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $2K | $2.1M | Services Australia | 0 | 979.6x |
| Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $20K | $2.1M | Services Australia | 0 | 104.2x |
| Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $5K | $6.1M | Services Australia | 0 | 1,159.7x |
| Thales Australia Limited | $22K | $49.1M | Department of Defence | 0 | 2,233.5x |
| Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $1K | $3.5M | Department of Defence | 0 | 2,708.9x |
| Thales Australia Limited | $55 | $3.5M | Department of Defence | 0 | 63,802.7x |
| Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $28K | $2.7M | Department of Industry, Science and Resources | 0 | 97.2x |
| Sanofi-Aventis Australia Pty Ltd | $2K | $1.6M | Department of Health and Aged Care | 0 | 981.6x |
Methodology
Data Sources
- AEC Transparency Register — 312,933 political donation records
- AusTender — 671,886 Commonwealth contracts
- ABN used as join key between datasets
Matching Rules
- Only donations with exact dates (64,285 of 312,933 records)
- Only contracts over $10,000
- Contract must start within 2 years after donation date
- Same ABN links donor to contract supplier
Timing Windows
- Immediate: Contract within 0–90 days of donation
- Short: 91–180 days
- Medium: 181–365 days
- Long: 1–2 years
Limitations
- Only 20% of AEC donations have exact dates
- Large companies donate and win contracts routinely
- Correlation does not imply causation
- State-level donations not yet included