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Donate Today,
Win Tomorrow.
Statistical analysis of the timing between political donations and government contract awards.0 temporal correlations across 0 entities reveal the rhythm of Australian political procurement.
Correlation, not causation. This analysis identifies temporal patterns between AEC donation records and AusTender contract data. Many of these entities are large companies that both donate widely and win contracts routinely. The data reveals systemic patterns worth investigating, not individual wrongdoing.
The Speed of Return
How quickly after a political donation does the donor win a government contract?
The Fastest Returns
Entities ranked by total contract value won within 2 years of making political donations. ROI = contract value received per dollar donated.
| Entity | Donated | Contracts Won | ROI | Avg Days | <90 Days | Parties |
|---|
Methodology
Data Sources
- AEC Transparency Register — 312,933 political donation records
- AusTender — 671,886 Commonwealth contracts
- ABN used as join key between datasets
Matching Rules
- Only donations with exact dates (64,285 of 312,933 records)
- Only contracts over $10,000
- Contract must start within 2 years after donation date
- Same ABN links donor to contract supplier
Timing Windows
- Immediate: Contract within 0–90 days of donation
- Short: 91–180 days
- Medium: 181–365 days
- Long: 1–2 years
Limitations
- Only 20% of AEC donations have exact dates
- Large companies donate and win contracts routinely
- Correlation does not imply causation
- State-level donations not yet included